Two teams that are ranked in the final College Football Playoff top 25 do battle in a bowl game that is shaping up to be one of the best ones this bowl season.
UTSA won their second straight Conference USA title and got great news in that Frank Harris will return for another season in 2023. They head to the Duluth Trading Cure Bowl in Orlando, Florida to face Sun Belt champion Troy, who has an elite defense tasked with slowing down Harris.
This is an exciting matchup between two of the best Group of Five teams in the country, here's our best bet for it:
UTSA vs. Troy Odds, Spread and Total
UTSA vs. Troy Betting Trends
- Troy is 10-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
- UTSA is 7-6 ATS this season
- UTSA has gone OVER in eight of 13 games this season and both times as an underdog
- UTSA head coach Troy Traylor is 1-1 ATS as a head caoch in bowl games
UTSA vs. Troy Prediction and Pick
This game is lined as close to a coin flip, and I agree with that as this is a matchup between the vaunted UTSA offense that is top 15 in EPA/Play against a Troy defense that has been nails all season and are 30th in temrs of EPA/Play.
Harris leads an efficient bunch that averages more than three points per drive, but this Troy defense is built unlike many opponents that the Roadrunners have faced in Conference USA. The Trojans defense is top 10 in points allowed per drive and have a stifling defensive line is top 15 in sacks this season and allow about three yards per carry. Further, Troy's defense is top 10 in explosive pass defense.
UTSA's defense does struggle with big plays, but they are strong down to down with a strong defensive line that generates tackles in the backfield, 31th in TFL and top 20 in defensive line yards.
Troy likes to win ugly, they have won five of 10 games by scoring 23 or fewer points. While it will be tough to keep down UTSA's defense all game long, can they play this game in the 20's? Both teams are top half nationally in terms of red zone touchdown percentage and I think we see both defenses show out and this game stays under the total.
It's worth noting that 55 is a key number in college football so I'll be holding out to get a better number, but this is an under or pass for me in a game that should be hotly contested between two competitive ball clubs.
Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.