Let's Set Odds: Where Will Dansby Swanson Sign in Free Agency?

Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson. / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop Dansby Swanson is officially a free agent after he rejected the Atlanta Braves qualifying offer.

The Braves reportedly made an offer to Swanson in the $100 million range, but he declined it to pursue free agency and aim for a figure closer to what Javy Baez and Trevor Story received in free agency last season.

A solid defensive shortstop, Swanson had a great season at the plate in the 2022 campaign, slashing .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs and 96 runs batted in. With several other shortstops ( Trea Turner , Carlos Correa , Xander Bogaerts) also set to hit free agency, Swanson’s defense is a major upside for interested teams.

Here are hypothetical odds to predict Swanson’s next team in the free-agent market:

Odds for Dansby Swanson’s Next Team in MLB Free Agency

  • Atlanta Braves: +110
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: +150
  • Seattle Mariners: +200
  • Chicago Cubs: +250
  • The Field: +300

Atlanta Braves (+110)

Do the Braves really let Swanson walk?

I think the two sides will eventually come to a deal, especially since the Braves were already willing to give him $100 million this offseason.

Atlanta does have a potential replacement in Vaughn Grissom, but why not have both players in case an injury happens like the one that Ozzie Albies suffered last season?

Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)

The Dodgers are the team that would scare me the most if I’m a Braves fan, as Swanson fits everything they need.

He’s a better defender than Trea Turner, and he’s likely going to come at a discounted price as well.

Turner has a better bat, but the Dodgers need to be able to trust their shortstop to make big plays on both sides of the ball going forward.

Seattle Mariners (+200)

The Mariners are going all in, as evidenced by their trade for Teoscar Hernandez, so it wouldn’t shock me if Swanson is in their plans.

He gives them a major defensive upgrade over J.P. Crawford at the position, and he could hit at the top of their order next season.

Chicago Cubs (+250)

The Cubs are expected to be active in their pursuit of a free-agent shortstop, but I have a hard time thinking Swanson chooses them over a potential contender.

That being said, the market could dry up quickly if other teams find their guy first, so the Cubbies are ahead of the field.

The Field (+300)

The Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees are three teams that come to mind here, and Philly could make a serious run at Swanson to pry him away from a division rival.

I still think the Braves and Dodgers make the most sense, but Swanson is going to highly sought after in the market.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.