North Texas vs. Boise State Prediction and Odds for Frisco Bowl (Expect Blowout)

Dec 3, 2022; Boise, Idaho, USA;  Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) during the second
Dec 3, 2022; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) during the second / Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

A pair of conference title game runners up do battle in the Frisco Bowl on Saturday night with one team laying double digits.

Boise State's meteoric rise after a midseason firing of their offensive coordinator and their move to tab freshman Taylen Green their starter wasn't enough to win the Mountain West Championship on their home turf. The Broncos now head to face North Texas in the Frisco Bowl, who fired head coach Seth Littrell after losing in the Conference USA title game to defending champion UTSA.

After Littrell was let go, this number flew through the key number of 10 and now sits with Boise State as a massive favorites. Is it warranted? Let's check out the odds and find out:

North Texas vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total

North Texas vs. Boise State Betting Trends

  • North Texas didn't cover their last three games
  • North Texas went OVER in eight of 13 games this season
  • Boise State went UNDER in three of their last four games
  • Boise State is 6-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season

North Texas vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

While it seems like North Texas is a strong squad given they made the conference championship game, but this team is closer to the bottom third of the country in terms of power ratings, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 125th in success rate.

On top of the fact North Texas struggles to get stops, they fired their coach Littrell which makes it difficult to envision this team is going to be fully motivated to face Boise State in this bowl game.

As for the Broncos, it's common in bowl games that certain teams that lose their conference title game can be a bit flat for the ensuing bowl game, but this is an interesting set of circumstances with Boise State turning their season around with the play of a freshman quarterback.

Green has revitalized the Boise State offense, which went from outside the top 100 through the first third of the season to right around the national average in terms of EPA/Play. The offense has turned it on, coupled with a defense that has been nails throughout the season, which checks in at third in terms of EPA/Play and top 10 in success rate.

North Texas offense has been reliant on chunk plays all season, 13th in explosive run and 10th in explosive pass rate, but it's not very efficient on a down-to-down basis. Overall, the team is 87th in success rate. So, I don't envision the Mean Green offense keeping pace with a Boise group that should score at will against a weak defense.

The backdoor could be open for North Texas to cover a now inflated point spread, but the defense won't be able to slow down the dual threat Green, who has over 2,300 all purpose yards in 10 appearances this season, including eight rushing touchdowns.

Keep in mind that North Texas plays at a frenetic pace, 20th in plays per minute, which means that the Broncos can have more possessions than expected in this game. With that in mind, I'm going to go with the Boise State team total over as my favorite play given the current betting market.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.