NHL best bets today (Don’t assume Islanders will beat Canadiens)

We went 2-1 with picks I gave out in my NHL best bets article. We were an overtime win away from completing the 3-0 sweep, but the Oilers got the better of the Avalanche in extra time.

We move on to tonight’s short slate, with just three games set to take place. I have bets for the two games that matter when it comes to the standings, but I’m leaving the Sharks and Flames game alone. I’ve lost enough money on the Flames this season, it’s time to officially retire them from by betting portfolio.

Let’s dive into my two best bets for tonight’s action.

Best NHL bets for Wednesday, April 12

• Canadiens +1.5 (+120) vs. Islanders
• Stars -165 vs. Blues

Canadiens +1.5 (+120) vs. Islanders

Thanks to the Pittsburgh Penguins blowing it last night, the New York Islanders are a win against the Montreal Canadiens away from locking up a postseason berth. That makes them an easy bet tonight, right? I mean, it’s a “must win” after all.

Wrong. Just ask the Penguins how a wrong a “must win” game against an easy opponent can go.

I don’t care how mandatory this game is to win for New York, there are numbers that indicate these odds shouldn’t be anywhere near as exaggerated as they are. For example, these two teams rank 21st and 23rd in expected goals percentage over their last 10 games.

I won’t take the Canadiens to win outright, but a +1.5 puck line at +120 is too tempting to pass up.

Stars -165 vs. Blues

The Dallas Stars are still alive for the top spot in the Central Division and I’m going to ride them tonight against a St. Louis Blues team’s that’s 28th in expected goals over their last 10 games.

The big advantage the Blues have over other teams is their shooting percentage, leading the league in that stat over their last few games at 13.95%. Luckily for Dallas, they can almost match St. Louis in this area, coming in at fourth in shooting percentage at 12.37% over the same stretch of games.

I think the Stars can get the job done tonight to keep their dreams of winning the Central Division alive.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.