Florida didn't take back SEC dominance under first year head coach Billy Napier, but the team did qualify for a bowl game as they head to Las Vegas to take on an upstart Oregon State team that finished the season with one of the most shocking comebacks in the season against Oregon.
The Gators won't have starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and will rely on third string quarterback Jack Miller against the Beavers and one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the country.
How does the Richradson opt out alter this game? Well, the line shifted several points towards the Beavers, but is that generating a valuable bet?
Here are the latest odds:
Florida vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread and Total
Florida vs. Oregon State Betting Trends
- Florida's head coach Billy Napier is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in bowl games
- Oregon State's head coach Jonathan Smith is 0-1 ATS in bowl games
- Oregon State went 10-2 ATS this season, 7-1 as a favorite
- Florida went 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season
Florida vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick
This number opened with Oregon State laying less than a touchdown, but ballooned out towards -10 on the news that Richardson would opt out for the NFL Draft. Now, this number may be a little too inflated considering this is still an SEC team with depth, but I'm not rushing to back the Gators with their porous rush defense.
The Beavers run the ball at a top 20 rate this season and are top 10 in success rate and will have an advantageous matchup against a UF defense that is 115th in EPA/Rush. For reference, when Oregon State erased a three possession deficit against Oregon in the regular season finale, it didn't throw a pass for the final 23 minutes of the game.
This Beavers team wants to run and play ball control, which is good for a team that is facing off against a terrible rush defense, but not for one that needs to win by multiple possessions in order to cover this spread. While Richardson was a massive impact, Miller was a four star recruit and has a host of skill position players that can be utilized.
With the spread this high, I'd rather look to the over than the spread as Florida is likely undervalued, but I'm not sure I can trust Miller to avoid mistakes and keep this game within the spread.
I think the Beavers can score at will, but Florida will be able to do its part to keep this game competitive.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.